Cameron faces leadership questions over Europe

By Guy Faulconbridge and Andrew Osborn

LONDON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Prime Minister David Cameron faced questions about his leadership on Tuesday after he bowed to pressure from inside the ruling Conservative Party to bring forward draft legislation enforcing a referendum on Britain's European Union membership.

Just hours after U.S. President Barack Obama cautioned against rushing towards the EU exit, Cameron was forced by a rebellion in his party into promising a bill that would pave the way for an in-out vote on Europe.

Cameron denied the move was a desperate measure to placate his increasingly restive and eurosceptic party, where many see the EU as an oppressive and wasteful "superstate" that threatens Britain's sovereignty.

"I think when all the dust has settled people will be able to see the substance of the issue," he said.

"That is that one party, the Conservatives, has a clear agenda: renegotiate, change Europe, have a referendum on it - the others parties don't take that approach," he told Sky news.

On the contrary, he said, he had shown leadership on the issue.

"The whole reason that we are now having this debate is because of the act of leadership I gave," he told ITV News, referring to an earlier promise to hold a referendum.

Yet the more ground Cameron concedes to his eurosceptic MPs, the more they want, deepening the 25-year battle in his party over Europe and undermining his own chances of leading it to victory in a general election set for 2015.

Divisions over Europe helped bring down the last two Conservative prime ministers, Margaret Thatcher and John Major, and many politicians compared Cameron's position to that of Major whose premiership was riven by rows over Europe.

"There is no way that he (Cameron) can give in any further because he's undermining his own position," said Sheila Gunn, who served as spokeswoman to Major.

RISKY PATH

Conservative MPs who back the new bill deny the move undermines Cameron. For them, it is a way of showing a sceptical public that the Conservatives really do want a referendum on Britain's EU membership, but are being held back.

The party's Liberal Democrat partners in coalition government are pro-Europe and oppose a referendum, while the opposition Labour party says it does not support a vote on the EU in 2017, the date proposed by Cameron earlier this year.

"We've set out our position and published this bill to give the British people an in-out referendum on Europe ... Now it's vital to hear whether Labour and the other parties are actually prepared to trust the British public," Conservative Party chairman Grant Shapps said in a statement.

Cameron's advisers hope the draft bill on an EU vote will end internal bickering. A Downing Street spokesman insisted Cameron was still in charge.

History shows Cameron is treading a risky path.

The three eurosceptic Conservative Party leaders who followed Major failed to get into power, and Cameron's capitulation over the new EU referendum bill has created the impression he is not in control of his own party.

"David Cameron's weakness has turned a European issue into a leadership issue," Labour foreign affairs spokesman Douglas Alexander said.

In January, Cameron promised to renegotiate the terms of Britain's EU membership and then hold a referendum by the end of 2017 in a speech meant to draw a line under the issue.

But some MPs had called for further concessions and media reports said Cameron's leadership could be challenged.

Cameron's potential rivals include London Mayor Boris Johnson and Education Secretary Michael Gove.

"RED LINE"

Cameron believes his decision to publish the draft bill will silence his eurosceptic MPs until the next election.

"This is our red line," one senior Conservative source said of the bill. "We're not going to give them any more ground."

Despite his latest concession, up to 100 eurosceptic Conservative members of parliament are still expected to criticise the government's legislative plans on Wednesday because they didn't include a bill promising a vote on EU membership.

Since coming to power in a coalition government three years ago, the Conservatives have been rattled by the popularity of the UK Independence Party (UKIP), which campaigns for Britain's withdrawal from the EU and tighter immigration laws.

A Guardian/ICM poll showed that UKIP's support had surged to a record high of 18 percent, while support for Britain's traditional parties had fallen by 4 percentage points each.

UKIP took a quarter of the vote in local elections this month. Unless Cameron can convince his party he can win the next election he is likely to face more challenges to his leadership.

"With the story changing every day, it's very reminiscent of the old John Major days where, really, the government appears to be being blown around by events," said UKIP leader Nigel Farage.

The Guardian poll put Labour on 34 percent, the Conservatives on 28 percent and the Lib Dems on 11 percent.

UKIP's poll rating has climbed steadily since Cameron set out his EU strategy in January.

Cameron's bid to renegotiate the terms of Britain's membership has worried the United States, which has warned London that it would lose influence in the world if it did leave the world's biggest economic bloc.

(Additional reporting by Mohammed Abbas, William James, Costas Pitas and William Schomberg; Writing by Guy Faulconbridge and Andrew Osborn; Editing by Giles Elgood)

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Margaret Thatcher's death puts Cameron's leadership in spotlight

By Andrew Osborn

LONDON (Reuters) - Margaret Thatcher's funeral this week may be the costliest political advert in history, if critics are to be believed - but her death is reminding Conservatives that their current prime minister pales against her ideological conviction and power.

Pollsters say David Cameron may get a small lift in the polls from public nostalgia for such a historic figure, even as figures on the right of his party pine openly for a leader who would have scorned his consensual quest for the centre ground.

"She believed in the battle of ideas — something that we would welcome returning to domestic politics today," Conor Burns, a Conservative lawmaker and friend of Thatcher's, told a parliamentary debate on her legacy last Wednesday.

Burns recounted how a taxi driver had told him there hadn't been a good premier since Thatcher, an assessment he said Thatcher shared. Cameron laughed, but it was an awkward moment for him.

Unlike Thatcher, Cameron is hamstrung by having to govern in coalition with another party, the more centrist Lib Dems.

But Cameron has also deliberately tried to soften an image of the Conservatives as the 'nasty party' - an image bequeathed by Thatcher's abrasive style and her determination to smash the collectivist post-war consensus that she saw as the root of Britain's ills.

Cameron's critics say this has led him to rely too much on focus groups to shape policies, which they complain have become too liberal.

"The best political leaders such as Margaret Thatcher instinctively know what the public want and where they are — they do not need opinion polls — and the worst political leaders are those who have to rely on those polls because they know no better themselves," said Philip Davies, another Conservative MP.

Britain's biggest-selling newspaper, the Sun, has added to Cameron's discomfort, quoting a friend of Thatcher's as saying the late politician was so dismayed with his leadership that she had not wanted to die while he was still in power.

"SPINELESS"

"With so many acts of spinelessness in the last three years, it is no wonder she despaired of his leadership," it wrote.

In February, his decision to back gay marriage split his party in half, and in March, a third placing behind the anti-EU UK Independence Party (UKIP) in a parliamentary by-election sparked fresh recriminations.

Though few seriously believe Cameron's leadership will be challenged before the 2015 election, his failure to energise a stubbornly stagnant economy - and Labour's 10-point lead in opinion polls - have fuelled the internal grumbling.

"There has been implicit criticism and it's a difficult position for Cameron to be in," said Joe Twyman, director of political and social research at the pollster YouGov.

He said some on the right of the party "look at the Iron Lady through rose-tinted spectacles and recall that she won three elections and say: 'This is what we need now'".

A Comres poll for the Independent on Sunday and the Sunday Mirror found that 88 percent of Conservative voters felt Britain needed more conviction politicians like Thatcher today.

When asked how he thinks he measures up with Thatcher, Cameron has looked uncomfortable.

"I think we all live in her shadow," he told Sky News. "But I think we also need to recognise that times change and different approaches are needed."

Some commentators have seen Cameron's decision to recall parliament to debate her legacy and the grandiose arrangements for her funeral as a gesture to placate his right-wingers.

He has also tacked noticeably to the right on immigration and Europe in recent months in response to the growing popularity of UKIP.

So far, his internal detractors comprise a small but vocal minority, and Cameron remains personally more popular than his own party. His supporters have said it would be madness to challenge his leadership.

"We must back our leader and ensure he has our full support," Conservative MP Oliver Colvile told his party in the debate. "If we do not, we will be in trouble."

(Editing by Kevin Liffey)

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Gaza premier elected as No. 2 in Hamas leadership

GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip (AP) — Hamas says it has elected Gaza's prime minister, Ismail Haniyeh, as the deputy leader of the Islamic militant group.

Senior Hamas figures this week re-elected longtime leader Khaled Mashaal to another four-year term. On Wednesday, the group announced it had elected Haniyeh, 50, as Mashaal's deputy.

Hamas, founded in Gaza in 1987, also has branches in the West Bank and outside the Palestinian territories.

Haniyeh's election signals a shift in the group's center of gravity toward Gaza, the territory the group has ruled since a violent takeover in 2007. Traditionally, top Hamas leaders have been exiles. Haniyeh is the first Gazan to rise to the No. 2 spot.

Last year, Hamas hard-liners in Gaza balked at Mashaal's attempt to reconcile with his political rival, West Bank-based Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

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Australian PM Gillard wins leadership vote unopposed

CANBERRA (Reuters) - Australia's Prime Minister Julia Gillard faces a leadership challenge after rivals called for a ballot to resolve months of slipping polls and internal tensions that put her minority Labor government on course to be swept away at September elections.

"This is not personal. It's about the party, the future of the country," said senior Labor minister Simon Crean, calling the challenge to break a deadlock between Gillard and chief rival Kevin Rudd, who she deposed in 2010.

Crean said Gillard had told him she would not call a leadership vote and he urged the Labor party to now pressure her to stage a ballot.

(Reporting by James Grubel; Editing by Michael Perry)

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Cameron's allies scorn talk of leadership threat

By Andrew Osborn

LONDON (Reuters) - Two senior members of Prime Minister David Cameron's ruling Conservative party spoke out to calm growing talk of a leadership challenge against him on Friday, days before a closely watched budget.

Halfway through a five-year term, Cameron's Conservatives are trailing the opposition Labour party by 10 percent in the polls, the economy is stagnant, some MPs say they are unhappy with his leadership, and one of his ministers is being touted as a possible replacement.

But on Friday, two senior party figures insisted Cameron's leadership was not under threat ahead of a general election in 2015, dismissing media stories which have suggested others may be positioning themselves to usurp him.

"David Cameron is more popular than all of us ... more popular than all of the party in the country, which is a key point that lots of people do recognise," said Conservative Party Chairman Grant Shapps.

Talk of a leadership challenge was "for the birds and certainly not for today," he told political magazine The House.

London Mayor Boris Johnson, who has himself been tipped as a leadership candidate, agreed. "People need some sort of political drama so they're inventing one. I think it's complete nonsense," he told The Sun newspaper.

Cameron is going through a bruising time politically.

His party was beaten into third place in a vote for a parliamentary seat earlier this month, half of his party rebelled against him over a gay marriage law last month, he is at odds with his junior coalition partner on press regulation, and is being criticised for his ambiguous stance on an alcohol control law.

SPECULATION SWIRLS

Most analysts believe the malcontents are in the minority and would have scant chance of unseating Cameron if they chose to try. No serious rivals have emerged, they say, and even most internal detractors think Cameron should remain leader.

But, as his Chancellor, George Osborne, prepares for a budget on Wednesday that will give the Conservatives a chance to tip the political scales in their favour, Cameron's position remains the subject of almost weekly speculation.

This week, Theresa May, the home secretary or interior minister, delivered a speech that went well beyond her brief, prompting media speculation she was angling for Cameron's job.

Labour taunted Cameron over the speech in parliament as Conservative party strategists told MPs to curb their criticism of Cameron on social media and to decide if they were commentators or participants in the battle to win the next election.

Johnson said it was time for the party to unite.

"If ministers are setting out their stall now, it strikes me as being very odd," he said. "They should save their breath and cool their porridge. Put a sock in it and get on and back the Prime Minister."

In a party political TV broadcast earlier this week, Cameron shrugged off the speculation about his leadership as "rubbish".

"It's so vital that you look to the horizon and not tomorrow's headlines, because there is a sort of daily battle of this story and that event," he said. "It's all rubbish."

Several Conservative MPs disenchanted with his leadership have said they would judge him by five "key tests".

In their eyes, he has already failed two of them after his party lost a vote for a parliamentary seat in the constituency of Eastleigh earlier this month and the country lost its top-notch AAA credit rating in February.

Three tests remain: setting out a successful budget on Wednesday, avoiding a triple-dip recession, and performing reasonably well in local elections in May.

(Editing by Robin Pomeroy)

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