U.S., Russia seek new Syria peace talks; rebels skeptical

By Arshad Mohammed and Erika Solomon

MOSCOW/BEIRUT (Reuters) - Russia and the United States agreed to seek new peace talks with both sides to end Syria's civil war, but opposition leaders were skeptical on Wednesday of an initiative they fear might let President Bashar al-Assad to cling to power.

Visiting Moscow after Israel bombed targets near Damascus and as President Barack Obama faces renewed calls to arm the rebels, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Russia had agreed to try to arrange a conference as early as this month.

An East-West disagreement that has seen some of the frostiest exchanges between Washington and Moscow since the Cold War has deadlocked U.N. efforts to settle the Syrian conflict for two years, so any rapprochement could bring an international common front closer than it has been for many months.

Israeli air strikes, reports of the use of chemical weapons and the increasing prominence of al Qaeda-linked militants among the rebels have all added to international urgency for an end to a war that has killed more than 70,000 people.

But with Syria's factional and sectarian hatreds more entrenched than ever, it is far from clear the warring parties are ready to negotiate with each other. Most opposition figures have ruled out talks unless Assad and his inner circle are excluded from any future transitional government.

"No official position has been decided but I believe the opposition would find it impossible to hold talks over a government that still had Assad at its head," said Samir Nashar, a member of the opposition's umbrella National Coalition body.

"Before making any decisions we need to know what Assad's role would be. That point has been left vague, we believe intentionally so, in order to try to drag the opposition into talks before a decision on that is made."

In the past, the United States has backed opposition demands that Assad be excluded from any future government, while Russia has said that must be for Syrians to decide, a formula the opposition believes could be used to keep Assad in power.

Opposition members said they were concerned by comments from Kerry in Moscow, echoing Russia, that the decision on who takes part in a transitional government should be left to Syrians.

"Syrians are worried that the United States is advancing its own interests with Russia using the blood and suffering of the Syrian people," said National Coalition member Ahmed Ramadan.

"We are in touch with the U.S. side and need to be assured that there is no change in its position on Assad."

Inside the country, where rebel groups are numerous and have disparate views, a military commander in the north, Abdeljabbar al-Oqaidi, told Reuters he would want to know details of the U.S.-Russian plan before taking a view. "But," he added, "if the regime were present, I do not believe we would want to attend."

There was no immediate response from the Syrian government, which has offered reforms but dismisses those fighting it as terrorists and puppets of outside powers - the West, Turkey and Arab states opposed to Assad's ally Iran. Speaking before the announcement in Moscow, Assad sounded his usual defiant tone.

"The recent Israeli aggressions expose the extent of the complicity between the Israeli occupier, regional countries and the West in promoting the current events in Syria," he was quoted as saying by a Lebanese televisions station.

"The Syrian people and their heroic army ... are capable of confronting this Israeli adventure, which represents one of the faces of terrorism that is targeting Syria every day."

COMMON INTERESTS

Alarmed at the prospect of the conflict spilling across a volatile region central to global energy supplies and transit routes, the major powers have, as Kerry told Putin on Tuesday, "very significant common interests" in pushing for a settlement.

"The alternative," Kerry later told a joint news conference with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, "is that Syria heads closer to an abyss, if not over the abyss and into chaos."

Both sides fear a failed state in Syria could provide a base for hostile militants willing to strike around the world.

Last June, at a conference in Geneva, Washington and Moscow agreed on the need for a transitional government in Syria but left open the question of whether Assad would be excluded. Diplomacy has foundered since then, and the mediator of the Geneva conference, former U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan, quit in despair, saying differences among powers were too wide.

Rejecting a characterization of Moscow as the protector of Assad, to whom it still provides arms, Lavrov said Russia was not concerned by the fate of "certain" individuals.

"The task now is to convince the government and all the opposition groups ... to sit at the negotiating table," he said.

Kerry said the conference should be held "as soon as is practical - possibly and hopefully by the end of the month". Neither he nor Lavrov said where it might take place.

Russia, backed by China, has vetoed three U.N. Security Council resolutions hostile to Assad. Alarmed at Western powers' use of a U.N. mandate to oust Muammar Gaddafi in Libya, Moscow and Beijing are wary of such interference in their own affairs.

ASSAD DEFIANT

Recent developments have focused minds on the risks of wider war in the Middle East.

The White House said last month that Assad's troops had probably used chemical weapons - which Obama has called a "red line" that would mandate a strong, if unspecified, response. The Syrian government and the rebels have each accused the other of using poison gas, a charge both sides deny.

Islamist fighters have pledged allegiance to al Qaeda, highlighting the risk to the West that a poorly managed change of leadership in Syria could bring hostile militants to power.

And Israeli air strikes in recent days - which Israeli officials said hit Iranian arms headed for Assad and Tehran's Lebanese allies Hezbollah - underlined the risk of escalation and cross-border conflict in the heart of the Middle East.

The violence has inflamed a confrontation between Sunni and Shi'ite Muslims in the Middle East, with Shi'ite Iran supporting Assad and Sunni powers like Saudi Arabia backing the rebels.

Tehran warned of unforeseeable consequences if Assad were toppled and said only a political settlement would avert a regional conflagration.

"God forbid, if there is any vacuum in Syria, these negative consequences will affect all countries," Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said in Jordan. "No one knows what will happen."

COOPERATION

Diplomatic sources in Moscow made clear the latest push for peace was being driven by growing alarm following the Israeli air raids, the possibility of foreign arms pouring into Syria and the possible use of chemical weapons.

Moscow and Washington have also signaled they want to improve cooperation on security matters since the Boston Marathon bombings, which U.S. officials suspect was carried out by ethnic Chechens who had lived in Russia. U.S. officials said FBI chief Robert Mueller had been in Moscow on Tuesday to discuss the bombings, but gave no details.

In a further sign of Washington's efforts to improve ties with Russia, Kerry avoided any sharp public criticism of Moscow's human rights record when he met civil rights activists in the Russian capital on Wednesday before his departure.

In Syria itself, Internet connections with the outside world were cut off on Tuesday, according to data from Google Inc and other global Internet companies.

Google's Transparency Report pages showed traffic to Google services pages from Syria suddenly stopping shortly before 10 p.m. Damascus time (1900 GMT).

Obama has shown little desire to embroil U.S. forces in Syria after winding down engagements in Iraq and Afghanistan, but has rejected criticism he might back out of a commitment to act if Assad crossed the "red line" of using chemical weapons.

On Tuesday, he pointed to the deaths of Osama bin Laden and Gaddafi to say "we typically follow through on our commitments".

Obama has said U.S. intelligence agencies believe Assad's forces probably used chemical arms but that the evidence is not entirely conclusive. Syria is not part of an international treaty that bans poison gas but has said it would never use chemical weapons in an internal conflict.

The chaos in Syria, where a fifth of the 25 million population has been driven from their homes, was underlined by the latest incident of rebels taking U.N. peacekeepers hostage on the ceasefire line with the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon strongly condemned the incident and called for the four Filipinos' immediate release. They were detained as they patrolled close to an area where 21 Filipino observers were held for three days in March.

The Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade said the peacekeepers were seized for their own safety during clashes in the area.

(Additional reporting by Steve Holland in Washington, Suleiman al-Khalidi in Amman and Arshad Mohammed, Timothy Heritage, Alexei Anishchuk and Steve Gutterman in Moscow; Writing by Alastair Macdonald, Timothy Heritage and Peter Graff; Editing by Alastair Macdonald)

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Obama needs to charm skeptical Israelis in visit

JERUSALEM (AP) — Barack Obama's vow to take his message straight to the public during his first presidential visit to Israel will be a tough sell with many Israelis who consider him naive, too soft on the nation's enemies and cool to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Overcoming this perception will require a major charm offensive and an uncompromising U.S. pledge to stand behind Israel, especially when it comes to stopping Iran's suspect nuclear program. Without a major initiative in his pocket for making peace between Israel and the Palestinians, the U.S. president will use his three-day visit, which begins on Wednesday, primarily as a means to convey a close alliance with Israel.

Rather than address Israeli leaders in parliament, as his predecessor George W. Bush did, Obama will deliver his main speech at a Jerusalem auditorium packed with university students. Tickets for Obama's speech on Thursday at a 1,000-seat convention center are much in demand, and students are entering ticket raffles across the country.

"He could have spoken to politicians or tycoons, but instead he chose to speak to us," said Lotem Cazes, a 25-year-old political science student at Ben-Gurion University in the southern city of Beersheba. "It's very moving. Even though he knows that not everyone likes him here he is still coming and trying to help."

In another effort to woo the Israeli public, Obama granted an exclusive interview with Channel 2 TV at the White House.

"What this trip allows me to do is once again to connect to the Israeli people and there is no substitute to that. The bonds between our two countries are so strong, not just shared values but shared families, shared businesses," he said in the interview, which aired Thursday. "And for me to be able to directly speak to the Israeli people and talk about our unshakable commitment to Israel, but also to talk about hopefully a shared vision of a more peaceful and prosperous future during a time when we know there is a lot of tumult in the area, it is a great opportunity for me. I'm really looking forward to it."

Throughout the interview, he referred to Netanyahu by his nickname "Bibi."

The U.S. Embassy in Tel Aviv launched a Facebook competition for 20 tickets to hear the president and thousands applied. The embassy also has unveiled a life-sized cutout of the president so people can pose for photos with his likeness.

American flags are lining Israeli highways and an enthusiastic embrace of Obama would start a new chapter in his relations with Israel.

Disappointment has marked Obama's previous visits to the region. On those trips, he passed over Israel and stopped in Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, where he delivered a landmark speech aimed at improving ties with the Muslim world. The speech, in which he criticized Israeli West Bank settlements, was seen in Israel as overly appeasing to the Arabs at their expense.

"I don't feel like he's done anything special for Israel," said Oshri Biton, a 40-year-old Jerusalem merchant. "As president, he has to be a friend of Israel's. But he's a friend who pats you on the shoulder. He doesn't give you a hug."

Israelis also will be looking for reassurance from Obama over his stance on Iran's suspect nuclear program.

Israel views a nuclear armed Iran as a threat to its existence, and Netanyahu has hinted at launching a pre-emptive military strike on the Islamic Republic. Obama has said that while he prefers using diplomacy over force, all options remain on the table. Tehran denies it is seeking atomic weapons, insisting its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.

Relations during Obama's first term in office were mostly characterized by high-profile spats with Netanyahu, over peacemaking efforts with the Palestinians, Israeli settlement building in the West Bank and Iran. In public appearances together, the two have shown little personal chemistry and looked uncomfortable with one another.

Eytan Gilboa, an expert on Israel-U.S. relations at Bar-Ilan University near Tel Aviv, said most Israelis made a distinction between the United States, Obama the person and Obama the president.

A survey Gilboa conducted last year found that more than 90 percent of Israelis polled had a favorable opinion of America and Americans. More than two-thirds liked Obama personally, but fewer than 50 percent approved of his Mideast policies and his treatment of Netanyahu. When asked about specific policies, only one-third approved of Obama's approach to Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking and even fewer approved of his policies toward Iran, Gilboa added.

The survey of 500 Israelis had a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

"The most powerful explanation is that Israelis think he cares less about Israel and more about other countries," Gilboa said.

Under the Obama administration, Israel has enjoyed its greatest security cooperation ever. The president and his team have been lauded by Israeli defense officials, particularly for backing the "Iron Dome" anti-missile defense system that recently shot down hundreds of rockets during a round of fighting against Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip. But the goodwill hasn't filtered down to the public.

Obama's visit, at the start of his second term and just as a new Israeli government takes shape, looks to open a new page and send a message to Israel — as well as its adversaries — that the U.S.-Israel bond is unshakable.

While policy issues are sure to dominate Obama's meetings with Netanyahu and President Shimon Peres, he is not expected to exert major pressure and most of his visit is expected to be centered on ceremonial events and his efforts to seek public appeal.

Obama is scheduled to visit the Yad Vashem Holocaust memorial and lay a wreath on the grave of the slain Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. He is to tour the Israel Museum and an exposition of products from the country's booming high-tech sector.

Ben Rhodes, Obama's deputy national security adviser, said Thursday that the president would reinforce U.S. support for the Palestinian Authority and would meet with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas during a trip to the West Bank city of Ramallah.

The Palestinians aren't too giddy about the president either. Early in his administration, Obama T-shirts were a big seller on Palestinian streets after he pushed Netanyahu to curb the construction of settlements in the West Bank and east Jerusalem, where the Palestinians hope to build their state. That, however, gave way to disappointment, especially after the White House refused to support the Palestinian's bid for independence at the United Nations. In recent days, posters of Obama have been vandalized in the Palestinian territories.

Obama sought to restart peace talks in 2010, but the effort collapsed within weeks. The Palestinians refuse to resume negotiations unless Israel stops building settlements in the West Bank and east Jerusalem. Netanyahu says talks should resume without preconditions, and says the Palestinians didn't return to the table even when he imposed a 10-month construction slowdown. He has allowed stepped-up construction in the territories since the United Nations moved to recognize a de facto state of Palestine in November.

Amnon Cavari, an expert in American presidential politics at the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya, a college near Tel Aviv, said he didn't think Obama would try to use the Israeli outreach effort as a way to pressure the government into concessions.

If anything, he said it had more to do with domestic American issues. Obama's shunning of Israel in the first term did not sit well with Jewish-American voters and a show of friendship could go a long way for Democrats in 2014 midterm elections.

"In the next four years there are going to be major changes in the Middle East, one way or the other," he said, referring primarily to issues over Iran. "Coming to Israel conveys the following message: The situation is not simple. The United States is behind you.'"

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