Iran's cunning Rafsanjani seeks one more shot

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Signs on currency exchange shops in Tehran explained why the doors where temporarily shut: Waiting to see if former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani would seek to reclaim the office. On Sunday, the money changers reopened early amid a mini-surge in Iran's gasping economy after Rafsanjani joined the race.

Tehran's stock exchange nudged higher. Merchants cut prices as the slumping Iranian currency clawed back about 4 percent against the U.S. dollar.

That's how much Rafsanjani's surprise decision reawakened Iran's presidential election process, which now includes more than 680 hopefuls and will culminate June 14 with just a handful of names on the ballot to succeed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The common wisdom held that the ruling clerics, which vet all the candidates, would clear only an establishment-friendly slate and pro-reform voters would be kept on the margins after years of withering crackdowns. The decision by another former president, Mohammad Khatami, to stay out of the race appeared to seal the scenario.

Suddenly, though, the 78-year-old elder statesman Rafsanjani has challenged that equation by putting his name in the election mix just minutes before the registration deadline Saturday.

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EDITOR'S NOTE: This is the third story in an occasional series examining the June 14 Iranian election and the wider global and internal Iranian consequences at the end of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's era.

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He has enough of a liberal aura to re-energize reformers for the first time since being crushed in the wake of Ahmadinejad's disputed 2009 re-election. He also is seen as a potential steadying hand on Iran's sanctions-sapped economy as a "millionaire mullah" patriarch of a family-run business empire.

In one of his first statements since joining the race, Rafsanjani spoke in general terms Sunday of seeking a new "economic and political" rebirth in a time of "foreign threats and sanctions."

Meanwhile, he still holds a senior position inside the ruling theocracy — and unimpeachable credentials during the 1979 Islamic Revolution — that gives him tough armor against likely attempts to sully his reputation as the election moves into its next stage.

The challenge, however, is whether reformists can fully rally behind a leader who left office 16 years ago and has built a reputation as a cunning political survivor that earned him a host of nicknames including Akbar Shah, or Great King. He has criticized crackdowns on dissent, but also retains a top post inside the theocracy and closely follows the official line on issues such as Iran's nuclear program and regional alliances including Lebanon's Hezbollah and Syria's regime.

"Rafsanjani is still the only real candidate who can pull together reformists," said Hamid Reza Shokouhi, an editor at the pro-reform Mardomsalari newspaper.

There is no guarantee Rafsanjani even will make the final candidate list approved by the ruling clerics next week. But he casts a wide net that cannot be easily ignored.

As Rafsanjani headed to the Interior Ministry to submit his name on Saturday, dozens of supporters lined the streets to shout words of thanks. The numbers might be insignificant. But any kind of public outburst by reformists is certain to be noticed by authorities.

Late Saturday, a group of pro-reform leaders gathered as Khatami called Rafsanjani's candidacy "a national opportunity" and urged liberals and moderates to unite behind him. Some reformist candidates, including one of Khatami's former vice presidents, pledged to withdraw to throw his support behind Rafsanjani, who last sought the presidency in 2005 in a loss to Ahmadinejad that has left bad blood that lingers still.

"Khatami has guaranteed reformist support for Rafsanjani," said Tehran-based political analyst Ali Dowrani. "Reformists are reaching a consensus to back him."

It's somewhat of a political bandwagon by default.

With Khatami staying out, there were only longshot candidates for Iranians seeking to ease the hard-line pressures since 2009, including sharp clampdowns on the Internet and political freedoms. The leading opposition candidates from four years ago, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mahdi Karroubi, remain under house arrest, while establishment enforcers, such as the paramilitary Basij corps, have been given far greater reach.

Rafsanjani's youngest daughter, Faezeh, was released from jail in March after serving a six-month sentence in connection with the post-election chaos. His middle son, Mahdi, also is to stand trial in coming weeks for his alleged role in the riots.

Rafsanjani, too, has suffered some blows but never enough to sweep him aside.

His main dissent moment came amid the punishing attacks on protesters claiming vote fraud brought Ahmadinejad back to power in 2009. Rafsanjani denounced the violence on both sides, but the comments were perceived as a message to the Revolutionary Guard and ruling clerics.

Rafsanjani, who carries the mid-level cleric rank of hojatoleslam, was forced to resign from his prestigious role as one of the leaders of Friday prayers at Tehran University. He later was pushed out of the Assembly of Experts — the only group with the power to dismiss the supreme leader — after failing to get enough support to leverage possible concessions from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the postelection clampdowns.

Rafsanjani, however, managed to keep his post as head of the Expediency Council, an advisory body that mediates disputes between the parliament and the Guardian Council, the watchdog group that vets all candidates for the presidency and other elections.

"I feel we young people will have an easier situation if Rafsanjani is in office," said Faezeh Jian, a 23-year-old Tehran resident who was still in elementary school when Rafsanjani left office after eight years in 1997. "I like him. I think we will face fewer crackdowns."

Such comments hint at Rafsanjani pulling in some support from the now dismantled Green Movement of four years ago. But his strongest appeal could be as a fiscal steward.

Iran's president has no direct say over nuclear policies — and no way to address international sanctions. But many Iranians complain about Ahmadinejad's economic policies of subsidies and government handouts. While they have earned Ahmadinejad a loyal following in many impoverished areas, they also are blamed for straining Iran's economy and contributing to the more than 30 percent plummet in the national currency's value.

"He (Rafsanjani) is internationally well-known and his economic team is quite powerful," said Kamyar Yaghouni, a 23-year-old law student.

Much of Rafsanjani's fiscal mystique is built around a family-owned business empire that began with pistachio trading but grew to include construction companies, an auto assembly plant, vast real estate holdings and a private airline. In 2003, he was listed among Iran's "millionaire mullahs" by Forbes magazine.

At a Tehran grocery story, owner Abbas Hemmati described Rafsanjani as the least offensive of the presumed front-runners, which include Tehran's mayor and a senior adviser to Khamenei. Also in the mix is Ahmadinejad's top aide, but there are questions on whether he will be cleared because of Ahmadinejad's internal political battles with the ruling clerics.

"Rafsanjani is bad, but I prefer him to others who are worse," said Hemmati. "When I cannot have a palace, I'll take a hut at least."

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Murphy reported from Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Associated Press writer Nasser Karimi in Tehran contributed to this report.

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Leading candidates in Iran's presidential race

The following are potential front-runners in Iran's June 14 presidential election to succeed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The list of candidates will be announced next week after vetting by Iran's ruling clerics:

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AKBAR HASHEMI RAFSANJANI: Served as president from 1989-97 and lost a comeback bid to Ahmadinejad in 2005. Rafsanjani is a fierce critic of Ahmadinejad and could become the main candidate for reformists and liberal-leaning voters. He also lost standing among the ruling clerics for publicly criticizing the crackdowns after Ahmadinejad's disputed re-election in 2009. Rafsanjani, 78, is currently head of the Expediency Council, an advisory body that mediates disputes between the parliament and the Guardian Council, the group that vets candidates for the presidency and parliament. He is conservative, but also seen as pragmatic and willing to cut deals with other factions. In the past, he has urged for better ties with the U.S.

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ALI AKBAR VELAYATI: Top adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on international affairs. Velayati, 67, served as foreign minister during the 1980-88 war with Iraq and into the 1990s. He is a physician and runs a hospital in north Tehran. He was among the suspects named by Argentina in a 1994 bombing of a Jewish center in Buenos Aires that killed 85 people.

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MOHAMMAD BAGHER QALIBAF: Tehran mayor and former commander of the Revolutionary Guard during the Iran-Iraq war. Qalibaf, 51, is a pilot who enjoys good relations with Khamenei.

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HASAN ROWHANI: A former nuclear negotiator and Khamenei's representative at the Supreme National Security Council, which also handles the nuclear dossier. Rowhani, 64, is a British-educated cleric. It is possible Rowhani could drop out of the race and throw his support behind Rafsanjani.

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ESFANDIAR RAHIM MASHAEI: A top adviser to Ahmadinejad. His candidacy is being heavily promoted by Ahmadinejad, but he will face serious hurdles during the vetting by the Guardian Council, which must approve all candidates. Mashaei, 52, was denounced as a leader of a "deviant current" in Ahmadinejad's political showdown with Khamenei. Mashaei's daughter is married to Ahmadinejad's son.

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MOHSEN REZAEI: Former chief commander of the Revolutionary Guard. Rezaei, 58, ran for president in 2009, but finished fourth. He is currently the secretary of the Expediency Council, of which Rafsanjani is chief and which mediates between the parliament and Guardian Council.

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A look at Iran's political hierarchy

A look at the political power structure in Iran.

SUPREME LEADER AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI: Wields control over every major decision either directly or through a network of hand-picked loyalists and institutions, including the powerful Revolutionary Guard, the judiciary and intelligence services.

GUARDIAN COUNCIL: Group of 12 experts in Islamic law who approve all candidates for high elected office and can veto parliamentary bills considered to be in violation of Iran's Islamic constitution.

PRESIDENT: The president's powers are limited by the ruling clerics. The president helps direct economic policies, domestic social programs, education plans and some public works. The president also has some voice in the level of freedoms such as media and political openness, but can be overruled by the clerics using the judiciary or Revolutionary Guard. The president represents Iran in many high-profile international forums and talks, but the clerics set all important foreign and defense policies. The next election for president is June 14.

PARLIAMENT: Its 290 members are elected every four years and have wide powers to set economic and social policies, but officials loyal to the supreme leader can block legislation. The next election for parliament is in 2016.

EXPEDIENCY COUNCIL: Mediates between the parliament and Guardian Council, but often favors the supreme leader's views. All members are hand-picked by Khamenei and served effectively as an advisory body to the supreme leader.

ASSEMBLY OF EXPERTS: An elected body of 86 clerics that has the official role of overseeing the supreme leader's performance, but main job is to select a successor after his death.

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Analysis: Iran's unlikely al Qaeda ties: fluid, murky and deteriorating

By Myra MacDonald

LONDON (Reuters) - When al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri spoke in an audio message broadcast to supporters earlier this month, he had harsh words for Iran. Its true face, he said, had been unmasked by its support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad against fighters loyal to al Qaeda.

Yet it is symptomatic of the peculiar relationship between Tehran and al Qaeda that in the same month Canadian police would accuse "al Qaeda elements in Iran" of backing a plot to derail a passenger train.

Shi'ite Muslim Iran and strict Sunni militant group al Qaeda are natural enemies on either side of the Muslim world's great sectarian divide.

Yet intelligence veterans say that Iran, in pursuing its own ends, has in the past taken advantage of al Qaeda fighters' need to shelter or pass through its territory. It is a murky relationship that has been fluid and, say some in the intelligence community, has deteriorated in recent years.

"I wouldn't even call it a marriage of convenience. It's an association of convenience," said Richard Barrett, former head of counter-terrorism for Britain's MI6 Secret Intelligence Service and later head of the U.N. Security Council's monitoring team maintaining the world body's al Qaeda and Taliban sanctions blacklists.

"It's not a strategic alliance. An al Qaeda presence may suit the Iranians because it allows them to keep an eye on them, it gives them leverage in the form of people who are akin to hostages," he added.

"There has been a lot of travel between Iraq and Pakistan and I cannot imagine the Iranians are not aware of that," he said. But it was unlikely that Iran would take the risk of actively collaborating with al Qaeda against North America: "I don't think the Iranians would take it kindly if it turned out that there had been plotting by al Qaeda on their territory."

Canadian police have said there was no sign the plot had been sponsored by the Iranian state. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said al Qaeda's beliefs were in no way consistent with Tehran's.

As yet, many details of the alleged plot remain unclear. However, a U.S. government source cited a network of al Qaeda fixers based in the Iranian city of Zahedan, close to the borders of both Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The source said they served as go-betweens, travel agents and financial intermediaries for al Qaeda operatives and cells operating in Pakistan and moving through the area.

Another Western source suggested that with relations deteriorating between Iran and al Qaeda over the civil war in Syria, Tehran had acted recently to stop fighters crossing through from Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) to join Islamist militants fighting to overthrow Assad.

"Although the relationship between Iran and Al Qaeda has always been strained, this worsened after 2011 when the two sides lined up on opposite sides in the Syrian civil war," said Shashank Joshi, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute think-tank in London.

"Syria's strongest rebel group is allied to Al Qaeda, and both have sharply criticized Iranian support for the Assad regime."

It is unclear whether the planning for the alleged Canadian plot, which Canadian police said had been in the works for some time, was carried out before Syria's war deepened the strain between Tehran and al Qaeda.

"There has been a loosening of the ties," said Barrett, noting that documents released after U.S. forces caught and killed Osama bin Laden in Pakistan in 2011 showed the al Qaeda leader saying he was not able to trust the Iranians at all.

"Since then we have Zawahri castigating Iran quite recently. So clearly something had gone wrong."

IRANIAN CONTROL FAR FROM CLEAR

If indeed the al Qaeda network was based in and around Zahedan - which lies on the main road to Pakistan and is the capital of Sistan-Baluchestan province - it is far from clear how easy it would be for Iran to control.

The region is home to a toxic mix of drug smuggling, illicit trade and gun-running by insurgents. Afghan refugees long ago crowded into poor neighborhoods on the outskirts of Zahedan, although Iran, like Pakistan, periodically tries to push them out, arguing they are a security risk.

Iranian authorities have also been battling a Sunni insurgency of their own in recent years by ethnic Baloch complaining of discrimination. The Jundollah group has claimed several attacks including a bombing that killed 42 people in 2009 - there is no sign it is linked to al Qaeda, though it is often confused with a Pakistan-based group of the same name.

At the same time, on the Pakistan side of the border, Pakistani security forces are fighting an insurgency by secular Baloch separatists, while al-Qaeda linked militants in the Sunni sectarian Lashkar-e-Jhangvi group have carried out a string of attacks against the Shi'ite population there.

PRAGMATIC APPROACH

Despite a common Western misconception that Iran, as the pre-eminent Shi'ite power, is motivated by religion, it has always been much more pragmatic in pursuing its national interest, analysts and diplomats say, allowing it to turn a blind eye to Sunni al Qaeda using its territory.

"The thing that has stymied people is that ‘al Qaeda is Sunni and the rest of the people we are talking about here are Shia. They don't mix and match.' Well, they do. And they do it whenever they want to. They just look the other way," said Nick Pratt, a retired U.S. Marines colonel and CIA officer now with the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies.

Before the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, Iran cooperated with India and Russia against the Pakistan-backed Taliban then in power in Kabul. When al Qaeda members fled Afghanistan after the overthrow of the Taliban, it detained them under house arrest in Tehran.

"Since 9/11 a number of senior al Qaeda figures including one of Osama bin Laden's sons and senior commander and strategist Saif al Adel made their way to Iran," said Nigel Inkster, former director of operations for Britain's MI6.

"They were detained under quite strict conditions by the Iranian authorities who subsequently sought to use them as a bargaining chip with the US government in their ongoing dispute about Iran's nuclear program," added Inkster, who is now director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Vahid Brown, a U.S.-based researcher who has written extensively on al Qaeda, said in an article on the Jihadica website earlier this year that the men who fled to Iran constituted a dissident faction within al Qaeda, which in recent years had become increasingly vocal in their criticism of bin Laden and Zawahiri.

Divided by their views on the advisability of the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States, broadly speaking, "the pro-9/11 group, including bin Laden and Zawahiri, fled to Pakistan, while the anti-9/11 group ended up in Iran, where they were placed under house arrest by Iranian authorities," he wrote.

Iran had been willing to cooperate with the United States on Afghanistan initially, but relations soured after Tehran was denounced by then President George W. Bush as part of the "axis of evil" in 2002 and worsened further after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Later, analysts say, Tehran allowed al Qaeda members - among them al Qaeda in Iraq leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi - to transit through Iran.

But Iran has been vulnerable to al Qaeda as well. After one of its diplomats was kidnapped in Pakistan some years ago it released some of the al Qaeda members it had under house arrest in exchange for his freedom, according to Pakistani media reports.

"About 18 months ago the Iranians released most if not all of those they were holding, for reasons still not entirely clear," said Inkster.

"There may well be a residual AQ presence in Iran though I would be cautious about presenting it as something very structured or hierarchic," he added.

"AQ is far from being the organization it once was and what matters more are relationships between like-minded individuals. And that may well be what we are seeing in the Canada case. There seems to be no evidence of Iranian official involvement."

(Editing by Peter Graff)

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Quake hits near Iran's nuclear city Bushehr, 37 dead

DUBAI (Reuters) - An earthquake measuring magnitude 6.3 struck on Tuesday 89 km (55 miles) southeast of the city of Bushehr in Iran, where the country's only nuclear power station is located, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reported.

The Iranian Seismological Centre at the University of Tehran reported a quake of 6.1 magnitude whose epicenter was Kaki, around 60 miles south of Bushehr, a port city on the Gulf.

Reuters witnesses felt the quake across the Gulf in Dubai, and Twitter users in Bahrain reported that offices in Manama had been evacuated after it struck.

The USGS said the quake struck at 1152 GMT at a depth of 10 km.

There was no immediate word on damages.

(Reporting by Yeganeh Torbati and Marcus George; Editing by Robin Pomeroy)

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World powers await Iran's reaction to nuclear offer

By Justyna Pawlak and Yeganeh Torbati

ALMATY (Reuters) - World powers will urge Iran on Friday to accept their offer to ease some economic sanctions if it stops its most sensitive nuclear work, in talks aimed at easing tensions that threaten to boil over into war.

The six powers - the United States, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany - will meet Iranian negotiators in the Kazakh city of Almaty for the second round of talks this year, aiming to settle a decade-old dispute over Tehran's nuclear work.

With an Iranian presidential election in June complicating decision-making in Tehran, there is little chance of a breakthrough, but Israel has indicted its patience with diplomacy is running out.

Israel has threatened to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities if Tehran does not curb the activities it suspects are aimed at making a nuclear bomb.

Without a conclusive deal in sight, Western diplomats are hoping for at least a serious discussion of specific points of their proposal, made at the last talks in February.

"We hope that Iran comes prepared, makes a substantive and concrete response that really enters into serious ... negotiations to meet the international community's concerns," a senior U.S. administration official said on Wednesday.

Iran has resisted international pressure, arguing its uranium enrichment is for peaceful purposes only and therefore should be allowed to continue, under international law.

Its negotiators arrived in Almaty with their own proposals, the Iranian media reported without giving any details. Chief negotiator Saeed Jalili struck a defiant tone.

"We think our talks tomorrow can go forward with one word. That is the acceptance of the rights of Iran, particularly the right to enrichment," Jalili said in a speech at a Kazakh university.

World powers say Tehran has relinquished that right by hiding its nuclear work from United Nations inspectors in the past and refusing to grant them full access.

Talks were due to start at 10:30 a.m. (0430 GMT) and last through Saturday.

AT ALL COST

If they fail to produce sufficient progress, Western governments are likely impose new economic sanctions, with the double aim of pressuring Tehran while seeking to persuade Israel to hold back from any military action.

In Israel, widely assumed to be the only nuclear power in the Middle East, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told visiting U.S. senators that Tehran's nuclear work must be stopped.

"We cannot allow a situation in which a regime that calls for our annihilation has the weapons of annihilation. And I think that must be stopped at all cost," he said.

U.S. President Barack Obama sought to cool tempers during a trip to Israel in March, saying diplomacy was the best option, but he alluded to the possibility of last-resort military action.

Experts say Iran would likely seek to keep diplomacy on track ahead of the election, in part to avert new sanctions, but without coming close to any deal.

There is broad unity within the Iranian political establishment on pursuing the nuclear program. Policy on the issue is directed by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, rather than by the president.

"The nuclear talks will be affected by the election insofar as the leadership is concerned about maintaining internal stability throughout the election," said Emanuele Ottolenghi, of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, a think-tank that has advised the U.S. government on sanctions against Iran.

At the core of the powers' concerns is Iran's enrichment of uranium to 20 percent fissile purity, a level that closes an important technological gap en route to making weapons-grade material.

During the last meeting in Almaty in February the powers told Iran to stop producing such uranium, ship out most of its stockpile and shutter its Fordow facility, buried deep in a mountain near the city of Qom.

In return, they offered to ease a ban on trade in gold and other precious metals and an import ban on Iranian petrochemical products.

(Additional reporting by Dan Williams in Jerusalem; Editing by Robin Pomeroy)

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Iran's nuclear program entails huge costs, few benefits: report

By Yeganeh Torbati

DUBAI (Reuters) - Iran will pursue its nuclear quest although it has reaped few gains from a totem of national pride that has cost it well over $100 billion in lost oil revenue and foreign investment alone, two think-tanks said on Wednesday.

A report by the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Federation of American Scientists said Iran's atomic work could not simply be ended or "bombed away" and that diplomacy was the only way to keep it peaceful.

"It is entangled with too much pride - however misguided - and sunk costs simply to be abandoned," the report's authors, Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group and Carnegie's Karim Sadjadpour, said of Iran's five-decade-old nuclear program, which began under the U.S.-allied shah.

"Given the country's indigenous knowledge and expertise, the only long-term solution for assuring that Iran's nuclear program remains purely peaceful is to find a mutually agreeable diplomatic solution," the report said.

Iran says its nuclear work has medical uses and will produce energy to meet domestic demand and complement its oil reserves.

The United States and other states suspect Iran is covertly seeking a nuclear arms capability. Israel has threatened military action to prevent the Islamic Republic from acquiring atom bombs. Tehran denies pursuing nuclear weapons.

The U.S. and its allies have demanded that Iran curb its enrichment of uranium and have imposed increasingly tough sanctions on Iran's energy, banking and shipping sectors that have cut Iranian oil exports by more than half since 2011.

Iran and six world powers are due to meet in Kazakhstan this week in hopes of finding a solution to the standoff. Their last meeting in February failed to achieve a breakthrough.

The report, entitled "Iran's Nuclear Odyssey: Costs and Risks", seeks to tabulate the opportunity costs of the nuclear program, and puts these at "well over $100 billion" in terms of lost foreign investment and oil revenues.

Relatively small uranium deposits will keep Iran from being fully self-sufficient in nuclear energy, it said, while Tehran has neglected to maintain existing infrastructure and develop other resources that could better secure its energy needs.

For instance, Iran's 1,000-megawatt Bushehr nuclear reactor, which came onstream in 2011 after repeated delays, accounts for just 2 percent of its electricity production, while about 15 percent of "generated electricity is lost through old and ill-maintained transmission lines", the report said.

Iran has vast oil and gas reserves, but sanctions have forced major Western firms to abandon the petroleum sector, making crucial upkeep difficult. Iran's solar and wind energy sectors have also gone undeveloped, the report said.

"No sound strategic energy planning would prioritize nuclear energy in a country like Iran," the report said.

"Instead of enhancing Iran's energy security, the nuclear program has diminished the country's ability to diversify and achieve real energy independence."

The authors recommended that outside powers engage with Iranians through "grassroots public diplomacy" and make clear what they could gain by compromise.

"The Iranian people have been largely absent from the nuclear discussion," they wrote. "While U.S. officials and members of Congress frequently speak of 'crippling sanctions', they rarely impress upon Iranians the concrete costs of their country's nuclear policies and the potentially myriad benefits of a more conciliatory approach."

A lasting deal would have to include commitments by Iran to abstain from activities vital to weapons production, which could give confidence that Iran could continue to enrich uranium to low levels needed for power generation, it said.

"There is virtually no chance that Iran will abdicate what it and many developing countries now insist is a right - a right to enrichment," the report said.

Negotiators should also discuss less politically charged topics such as nuclear safety cooperation and alternative energy options for Iran, "increasing the chances of breaking free of zero-sum games and creating win-win opportunities", it said. (The report can be found at http://carnegieendowment.org/2013/04/02/iran-s-nuclear-odyssey-costs-and-risks/fvui)

(Editing by Alistair Lyon)

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Obama pledges resolve against Iran's nuclear aims

JERUSALEM (AP) — Eager to reassure an anxious ally, President Barack Obama on Wednesday promised to work closely with Israel and do whatever is necessary to keep Iran from obtaining nuclear arms, "the world's worst weapons." He also pledged to investigate whether chemical weapons were used this week in neighboring Syria's two-year-old civil war.

Obama, meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on his first visit to the Jewish state as president, said of Iran's nuclear ambitions: "We prefer to resolve this diplomatically and there is still time to do so." But he added that "all options are on the table" if diplomacy falls short.

"The question is, will Iranian leadership seize that opportunity," he added. The president said Iran's past behavior indicates that "we can't even trust yet, much less verify."

Netanyahu, at Obama's side for a joint news conference, said that while he appreciated U.S. efforts to thwart Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons through diplomacy and sanctions, those tools "must be augmented by a clear and credible threat of military action."

"I am absolutely convinced that the president is determined to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons," Netanyahu said. "I appreciate that. I appreciate the fact that the president has reaffirmed, more than any other president, Israel's right and duty to defend itself by itself against any threat."

The Israeli leader said that he and Obama agree that it would take Iran about a year to manufacture a nuclear weapon. Obama said there is "not a lot of light, a lot of daylight" between the two leaders in intelligence assessments about Iran, and Netanyahu concurred.

Although preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon is a priority of both Israel and the United States, Netanyahu and Obama have differed on precisely how to achieve that.

Israel repeatedly has threatened to take military action should Iran appear to be on the verge of obtaining a bomb. The U.S. has pushed for more time to allow diplomacy and economic penalties to run their course, though Obama insists military action is an option.

Obama also took note of the difficult way forward in the broader quest for Mideast peace, acknowledging that in recent years "we haven't gone forward, we haven't seen the kind of progress that we would like to see."

The president said he came to the region principally to listen, and hoped to return home with a better understanding of the constraints and "how the U.S. can play a constructive role."

"This is a really hard problem," he declared.

Netanyahu, for his part, said he was willing to set aside preconditions in future talks with the Palestinians, adding that it was time to "turn a page in our relations."

On another troubling issue in the region, Obama said the U.S. is investigating whether chemical weapons have been deployed in Syria, and he said he was "deeply skeptical" of contentions by Syrian President Bashar Assad's government that rebel forces were behind any such attack.

Both the Assad government and Syrian rebels have accused each other of using chemical weapons in an attack on Tuesday.

Obama said the U.S. policy not to intervene militarily or arm Syrian rebels thus far is based on his desire to solve the problem with world partners.

"It's a world problem when tens of thousands of people are being slaughtered, including innocent women and children," Obama said.

Obama's visit to Israel, from the start, has been designed to send a message of reassurance to a key ally.

At an extravagant welcoming ceremony, Obama sounded a message that "peace must come to the Holy Land" and that such a goal could not be achieved at Israel's expense. U.S. backing for Israel will be a constant as the Middle East roils with revolution and Iran continues work on its nuclear program, he said.

"The United States is proud to stand with you as your strongest ally and your greatest friend," Obama said after landing at Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion International Airport.

"Across this region the winds of change bring both promise and peril," he said, calling his visit "an opportunity to reaffirm the unbreakable bonds between our nations, to restate America's unwavering commitment to Israel's security, and to speak directly to the people of Israel and to your neighbors."

Seeking to alter a perception among many Israelis that his government has been less supportive of Israel than previous U.S. administrations, Obama declared the U.S.-Israeli alliance "eternal."

"It is forever," he said to applause as Israeli and U.S. flags fluttered in a steady breeze under clear, sunny skies.

Even before leaving the airport for Jerusalem, Obama offered a vivid display of the U.S. commitment to Israeli security by visiting a missile battery that is part of Israel's Iron Dome defense from militant rocket attacks. The United States has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in developing the system with Israel.

Obama and Netanyahu toured the battery, brought to the airport for the occasion. They met and chatted with soldiers who operate the system that Israel credits with intercepting hundreds of rockets during a round of fighting against Gaza militants last November.

Netanyahu, who sparred frequently with Obama over the course of the U.S. president's first term, praised the president.

"Thank you for standing by Israel at this time of historic change in the Middle East," he said. "Thank you for unequivocally affirming Israel's sovereign right to defend itself by itself against any threat."

Obama, who joked that he was "getting away from Congress" by visiting Israel, planned to visit several cultural and religious sites aimed at showing his understanding of the deep and ancient connections between the Jewish people and the land that is now Israel.

He will also meet Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in the West Bank and travel to Jordan before returning home on Saturday.

Even though U.S. officials have set expectations low and previewed no major policy pronouncements, a clear measure of the success of Obama's Israel trip will be how much he is able to reverse negative perceptions.

The centerpiece of the visit will be a speech to Israeli university students on Thursday, during which Obama will again renew U.S. security pledges as Israel seeks to counter threats from Iran, protect its people from any spillover in the Syrian civil war and maintain its shaky peace accord with an Egypt that is now controlled by the Muslim Brotherhood.

Obama will visit the cash-strapped Palestinian Authority's headquarters in the West Bank town of Ramallah, where he will meet the embattled Abbas and assure him that an independent Palestinian state remains a U.S. foreign policy and national security priority.

As Israelis warmly greeted Obama, Palestinians held several small protests in the West Bank and Gaza. Demonstrators in the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip burned posters of Obama and U.S. flags, accusing the U.S. of being biased toward Israel.

In the West Bank, about 200 activists erected about a dozen tents in an area just outside of Jerusalem to draw attention to Israel's policy of building settlements. The tents were pitched in E1, a strategically located area where Israel has said it plans on building thousands of homes. The U.S. has harshly criticized the plan.

Obama will close out his Mideast trip with a 24-hour stop in Jordan, an important U.S. ally, where his focus will be on the violence in Syria. More than 450,000 Syrians have fled to Jordan, crowding refugee camps and overwhelming aid organizations.

In his talks with Jordan's King Abdullah, Obama also will try to shore up the country's fledgling attempts to liberalize its government and stave off an Arab Spring-style movement similar to the ones that have ousted leaders elsewhere in the region.

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Associated Press writers Mohammed Daraghmeh in Ramallah, West Bank, and Ibrahim Barzak in Gaza City, Gaza Strip, contributed to this report.

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